THE OPPOSITION’S EQUATION
A long road — but a year is a very long time in politics
Kellie Sloane became Opposition Leader in November 2025 after Mark Speakman’s polling-driven resignation. A first-term MP representing Vaucluse, she brings a genuinely improved personal profile compared to her predecessor and a contrast being a female leader. Her net favourability is +3 per cent against Speakman’s -3 per cent. She was among the first people to reach victims during the Bondi terror attack in December, which gave her immediate national credibility. In January 2026 she announced a refreshed shadow cabinet and declared the Coalition “government ready.”
The arithmetic for Sloane to win Government is daunting. The Coalition needs to claw back 12 seats to govern in its own right, and the polling is currently nowhere near that target. But consider what a year contains: a state budget, a federal royal commission interim report due in April, ongoing cost of living pressure, and any number of unexpected events that routinely reshape political landscapes.
The most recent DemosAU poll found that 48 per cent of voters believe NSW is heading in the wrong direction — against just 30 per cent who say it is on the right track. A government trailing badly on cost of living (-60 per cent net satisfaction), housing (-52 per cent), energy (-32 per cent) and crime (-32 per cent) is not immune to a reversal of fortune.
The complicating factor for Sloane is the federal context. The federal Liberal party has been turbulent: the Coalition split for the second time in January before reuniting, Angus Taylor deposed Sussan Ley as federal Liberal leader in February, and Nationals leader Littleproud resigned last week, being replaced by Senator Matt Canavan. Sloane’s moderate brand depends on distance from that instability. Whether she can maintain it as federal dynamics evolve will be one of the defining tests of her leadership over the coming year.
“If a week is a long time in politics, a year is an eternity. The fundamentals favour Minns — but the battleground is far from settled.”
THE POLICY BATTLEGROUND: WHAT EACH SIDE IS OFFERING
Labor’s pitch: delivery, workers, and stability
Minns is running on a record of action. The housing agenda — transit-oriented development zones, the Housing Delivery Authority, and the newly announced Bays West precinct for up to 8,500 homes above the future metro station — gives him concrete visuals.
Minns is keen to claim a vivid infrastructure story: 32 new and upgraded hospitals, 230 new and upgraded schools, and a $30 billion a year capital program — or as he says, $81 million every single day. Minns will claim he is delivering what communities were promised for twelve years and never received, although much of this infrastructure agenda was set in motion by the previous government.
On Saturday just gone, Minns opened the M12, 16 kilometres of new motorway connecting Western Sydney to the new airport. Planning began in 2015 for this road, yet Minns is the beneficiary of good timing and said the road was delivered on time, on budget — and he made quite a statement about it being toll-free, despite tolling never having been proposed in the first place. The toll-free line plays strongly for Labor.
Minns may well make the frontline worker story Labor’s most durable political asset heading into 2027. His government abolished the former Coalition’s public sector wages cap — a policy he claims had suppressed pay for nurses, teachers, paramedics, police, and child protection workers for over a decade. Since taking office, 41 industrial instruments have locked in pay increases covering more than 190,000 public sector workers. More than 400,000 employees have been offered a baseline three-year wage offer of 10.5 per cent including superannuation. This is an industrial story which draws a sharp contrast with twelve years of Coalition government, however, the impact on the budget is now being felt.
Labor’s vulnerabilities are the $3.4 billion deficit and the gap between housing commitments and actual delivery. The HDA’s unauthorised AI controversy — with the overseeing deputy secretary still on extended leave — is a governance question the Opposition will continue to prosecute. The Government has been under ongoing pressure on mental health services with two patients escaping from Cumberland hospital in February, public hospital psychiatrists resigning en masse in 2025. It may yet feel the heat from any findings from the Royal Commission into Antisemitism.
Minns is now beginning to lean on an experience contrast, citing his three years in government as tested leadership against a first-term MP who has never held a ministerial brief.
Coalition’s pitch: infrastructure, affordability, and small business
Sloane’s pitch is built around three priorities she has articulated clearly since taking the leadership. First, infrastructure and economic growth: restore the long-term pipeline, expand Sydney Metro, and strengthen regional transport — with a direct attack on Labor for halving infrastructure investment over the forward estimates, delaying Metro West, and cutting regional road upgrades. Second, cost-of-living relief and housing: reinstate First Home Buyer Choice, Active Kids, Creative Kids and Back to School vouchers, reduce taxes and charges on development, and reinstate fertility support for couples — a pointed attack on a cut that received little public attention. Third, health and public services: her headline statistic is that patients at Liverpool Hospital are now waiting 381 days for surgery, 172 days longer than when the Coalition left government. She has also staked a credibility claim that is designed directly to counter the inexperience attack: the illicit tobacco legislation the Minns Government enacted was drafted by the Liberal Opposition. It is a “governing from opposition” argument that gives her team a tangible legislative win to point to, although there is a question if the public heard it or care.
On the budget, Sloane is swinging hard: she argues NSW debt is heading towards $200 billion by 2028 — the highest in the state’s history — with no credible path to surplus and no protection against future shocks. That figure, if it lands with voters, cuts directly against Labor’s narrative of responsible management. Expect more from the Opposition about the GST carve up and how NSW is being duded. Last Friday’s determination by the Commonwealth Grants Commission confirmed NSW will receive just 82 cents for every dollar it contributes to the GST pool
The structural electoral challenge, however, remains unchanged. With the rise of One Nation, the Coalition faces a primary vote of 23 per cent against Labor’s 34 per cent, and the latest polling projects a two-party swing against it of over 12 per cent. Realistically, it is competing to be the largest non-Labor party in a hung parliament — influence without government.
Sloane will need to defend herself against the government’s attack line on her inexperience. Expect Sloane to emphasise her personal narrative that extends beyond being a former TV presenter: almost two decades in journalism, then CEO of Life Education nationally, and a country upbringing in regional South Australia. Although her seat of Vaucluse might work against her as it did for former Opposition Leader Peter Debnam.
Chris Hall is CEO, Primary Comms Group, and Chair at Sport NSW
