With one year to the NSW state election, the political picture is becoming clearer. Minns is the favourite to return to government – there is a good chance he will govern in minority, not majority. That means the crossbench will retain leverage, and the next government’s program will depend on negotiations in the Upper House with the Greens, One Nation, and independents. For organisations operating in NSW, this is not background noise. It is the operating environment. And the window to shape it is exactly twelve months wide.
The four things you need to do before election day
- Lock in your budget submission now. The June 2026 NSW Budget is the last major fiscal statement before caretaker mode. It is the final realistic opportunity to influence pre-election spending commitments, regulatory settings, and program design. Time for submissions and advocacy is rapidly closing. If you haven’t already it means starting now, not in April.
- Map your regulatory pipeline for 2026. In the year before an election Governments often realise there is an election deadline looming. The Government may seek to get through more decisions, approvals and determinations, especially if it suits their agenda, before caretaker conventions limit their discretion. If you have decisions in train, understand where they sit and what needs to happen to move them forward before 2027.
- Build a crossbench strategy, not just a ministerial one. With an elevated One Nation presence the most likely upper house scenario, organisations with legislative exposure need to know who the key crossbench members are, what they care about, and where your interests align or conflict. Waiting until after the election is too late.
- All sides of the chamber need to know your position before the election. Businesses need to build relationships now, not just wait till the election results are known.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA: THE ONE NATION TEST CASE
This Saturday, South Australia goes to the polls and the result will be watched just as closely in Sydney as it is in Adelaide. Not because the NSW political contest is directly affected, but because South Australia is about to become the first state election held since One Nation’s dramatic surge in national polling.
The pre-election numbers are striking. A DemosAU poll put Labor at 43 per cent, with One Nation and the Liberals in an extraordinary contest for second place – One Nation on 19 per cent, the Liberals on 18 per cent, and the Greens on 12 per cent. In the upper house, One Nation was polling 21 per cent, enough, analysts project, for two to three Legislative Council seats.
The critical question Saturday will answer, one that bears directly on the NSW election twelve months hence is whether One Nation’s poll support translates to actual votes when voters are in the booth. The party faces a structural challenge: it has no state-level figure to rally around in South Australia. Pauline Hanson, the party’s most recognisable face, is a Queensland Senator with no presence in SA politics. Whether voters who tell pollsters they support the party will follow through without a prominent local champion is the unanswered question that Saturday will begin to settle.
For NSW executives, the answer matters. If One Nation converts polling into votes in SA, the 21 per cent primary vote and projected upper house presence in DemosAU’s NSW polling becomes a more credible forecast, not just a protest signal. If Saturday shows a significant gap between poll support and actual votes, the NSW upper house arithmetic may be considerably less volatile than the current numbers suggest. Watch Saturday night closely – it is the first real data point in a trend that will define NSW’s legislative environment for the next four years.
Chris Hall is CEO, Primary Comms Group, and Chair at Sport NSW
Primary Communication works with executives, boards, and investors to develop government engagement strategies built on deep political intelligence. With one year to the NSW election, the time to map your exposure, identify your stakeholders, and develop your position is right now – not after the writs are issued.
To discuss what the 2027 election means for your business, contact us today.
