Barack Obama once said: “A budget is more than just a series of numbers on a page; it is an embodiment of our values.”
That’s a noble objective but values tend to be tweaked in the run to an election – especially when there’s a clear and present danger of you not being re-elected.
The Minns Government is no different to any other in wanting to retain its place on the Treasury benches while facing a s fracturing of the two-party system.
Chris Minns is arguably the most centrist Premier in the country. His values are to manage existing debt by not committing to new mega projects, while doing his best to improve the lot of a public sector workforce that backed him in to win government.
Many forget that Chris Minns is already governing from a minority position. The pressure is really on the low-profile NSW Opposition under Kellie Sloane to present as a credible alternative while shedding votes to One Nation.
It all brings the importance of next Tuesday’s State Budget into sharp focus, as it’s the last one scheduled before the March 2027 state election.
By our tally, we’ve seen $15.09 billion in pre-Budget commitments announced in the last two weeks. Measured against the 2026-27 Budget, that’s about 13 percent of spending already on the table.
There’s been $10.1 billion unveiled in new health spending, for 9,000 workers and four new hospitals, and expenditure in other priority areas for schools and improving housing supply.
The Transport portfolio has flagged $2.1 billion for a Rail Reliability Plan for maintaining Sydney’s ageing trains while $557m will subsidise loans for 32,000 low income homes to move to greener energy.
While some commitments are multi-year and not directly comparable to a single-year budget, the scale of the announcements so far suggests there will be few fiscal surprises on Budget Day.
The usual budgeted but unannounced spending commitments to be rolled out in the election lead-up will be there, but the lolly bag may not be as large as expected six months ago, thanks to high interest rates and fabled stiff economic headwinds.
It is clear the Government is focussing on service delivery across Health and Transport alongside some cost-of-living relief measures as it prepares the way for the election in March next year. Expect more announcements about Planning as the Government seeks to continue the delivery of housing which has occupied much of the term.
Craig Regan, Senior Account Director
