The only poll that counts is an election and all that stuff, but none of the litmus tests for the Albanese Government or the Dutton Opposition are good news for either. 

This week’s Newspoll showed both leaders had an approval rating of minus 13 and voters split 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis. 

Newspoll says a hung Parliament would have resulted if an election had been held last weekend, with The Greens, Teals and independents holding the balance of power. 

All talk in the months ahead will be about circuit breakers. History shows that the more desperate a government becomes in its search for one, the more it cocks up. 

A prime example is this week’s attempt by Treasurer Jim Chalmers to blame enduring high inflation on the Reserve Bank.  

A cut in interest rates could lift the Government’s stocks, but publicly pressuring the independent Board of the Reserve is not going to bring it about. 

The more time a government appears to spend talking about non-mainstream issues – like an inclusion question in the Census, the timing of a Prime Ministerial wedding or divisions in its ranks about the Gaza conflict– the more disconnected it looks from mainstream issues. 

Remember when Scott Morrison tried to rally his base on Sydney’s Northern Beaches with a conversation about transgender sport in the 2022 election? He was actually toast before that, and it hindered more than it helped.  

Once elected, Anthony Albanese made a bonfire of his own political capital by not explaining his proposed Voice and hasn’t had any momentum since.  

Politicians since Ronald Reagan have wallowed in parroting “it’s about the economy, stupid”, but the smart ones know that it’s really about the economic impact on people.  

Absurd populism (like The Greens’ fantasy of a tax on company profits) won’t change things, but is anyone listening to major parties at this stage of the game?   

Craig Regan, Senior Account Director, Primary Communication