Primary Communication is running the rule over key New South Wales seats in the lead up towards polling day. But first, some context to set the scene.

A number of key themes are emerging as New South Wales moves inexorably towards its March 25 election, and some of them are reading like a re-run of the Federal poll.

Gender balance (or a lack thereof), pre-selection delays (especially on the government side where 36 seats lacked a candidate a week ago), and the general malaise of eroding support for major parties, are stand outs.

A cashless gaming card (on the government side), tolls and housing affordability (from Labor) were the first substantial issues to emerge from the post-Christmas policy phony war.

Although the Coalition won the 2019 election with 48 seats to Labor’s 36, redistributions and a process of attrition have left Premier Dominic Perrottet in charge of a minority government.

On paper, Labor needs a daunting 6.2 percent swing (or nine seats) to win a majority, but a Chris Minns government with crossbench support is a strong possibility if it picks up just five seats.

There are nine crossbenchers in the current Parliament. That statistic, and the likely continuing slide in major party support, makes the concept of a universal swing irrelevant.

Changes brought about by the 2020-21 electoral redistribution makes Coalition-held Heathcote one of the most fascinating contests.

The seat runs from Kirrawee in the Sutherland Shire to Bulli at the base of the Illawarra Escarpment. It votes strongly Liberal in the north and consistently Labor in the south.

Onetime chef and gourmet food distribution company owner Lee Evans has held Heathcote since 2011, and won again in 2019 with a five percent margin. Boundary shifts have made his seat notionally Labor with a 1.7 percent majority, and he has lost supportive booths in the Shire.

His Labor opponent, Maryanne Stuart, is a former political staffer who is a long-time Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) campaign organiser. Like Evans, she has strong local ties. She managed a 2.1 percent swing after first preferences at the last election.

Evans has been campaigning on an upgrade to Shellharbour Hospital, improvements to Heathcote Road and support for local sport. Expect Labor to throw everything at Heathcote and to target cost-of-living issues.

The Green candidate is Bundeena resident Cooper Riach who at 22 years of age is green in all senses of the word. His party went backwards by 0.3 percent at the last poll – but that statistic is academic if neither major party wins an absolute majority.

Article by Craig Regan, Senior Account Director at Primary Communication