Between COVID, floods and the tragedy of the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, somewhere the news cycle is going to have to factor in the upcoming Federal Election.

Slated for mid to late May, it has been argued the domestic and global turbulence engulfing the media is exactly what both sides of politics want – an environment of little scrutiny and even less substance.

Labor has deliberately released little in the way of public policy. This responds to the failure of its 2019 strategy where the party released incredibly detailed policy suites, but lost the election despite nearly universal predictions of a win.

As for the Coalition, it has been weathering rolling disasters – be they natural and environmental or political and self-inflicted – and has struggled to stay on top of its current agenda let alone establish a new one.

Meanwhile disillusionment with both major sides has the so-called Independents again being touted as holding the potential balance of power – “so-called” because their commonalities and unity of messaging bears remarkable resemblance to those of political parties, bringing to mind the expression “if it walks like a duck and talks like duck…”

However, this has only occurred twice since Federation in 1901 – once in 1940 and then again in 2010. With polling becoming increasingly less indicative of actual outcomes, many look to betting markets for a guide.

Given current odds have Labor at $1.32, the Coalition at $3.20, and $41 if the independents decide which side holds government, it could be considered the election is Labor’s to lose.

A reflection on the expectations versus the outcomes of the 2019 Federal Election suggests that at this stage of the election cycle, it is still very much anyone’s guess as to who will be governing Australia after the 2022 election.

By Duncan Bremner

Duncan is Primary’s Senior Counsel, public affairs, with extensive and trusted networks in business politics, government, and media