Forget the cost of living and energy prices. Donald Trump is the real wild card in the forthcoming Federal election.
Be concerned about foreign interference laws and all those shadowy online actors, but The Orange Man can, and probably will, become an issue at any time.
Consider Trump’s war on tariffs. The Government’s failure to secure Australia an exemption from Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs probably was a done deal long ago, but we export very little of both to the US anyway.
On the other hand, if Trump moves his attention to pharmaceuticals, the result will be an enormous political migraine for the Albanese Government. Australia exports about $1 billion of medicines to the US each year. Health and life sciences account for one of our largest export sectors, employing about 260,000 people. In the 12 months to February 2024, medicinal and pharmaceutical imports from all nations came close to $1.7 billion.
Next Tuesday’s Federal Budget will contain a lot of bragging about listings of drugs on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). These listings on the $17 billion a year scheme are recommendations by an expert committee of eminent professors who are independent of government.
They are usually rubber stamped by Cabinets of both political persuasions who then take all the credit that goes with announcing them.
Overseas pharma companies hate subsidised medicines but go along with the system to ensure they have access to markets.
Australian taxpayers pay an average of $85 to subsidise the cost of each prescription.
If Trump decides the world is exporting too many medicines into America and imposes tariffs, the result will be unaffordable prescription drugs for millions of Australian voters.
The Opposition will pour blame on a government whose calls the Trump administration wouldn’t take.
Labor knows it looks weak when it doesn’t stand up to Trump but doesn’t want to give US policy hawks an excuse to tear up the AUKUS agreement.
Polling by Talbot Mills Research in February found about half of Australians disapprove of Trump’s performance, with 34 percent strongly disapproving. If the USA slips into recession and has a knock-on effect for Australian superannuation balances, that will soar.
If the trade wars extend to medicines, expect the Albanese Government to come out swinging and the Opposition to cry blue murder.
Craig Regan, Senior Account Director, Primary Communication
