Premier Jacinta Allan has a chance to renew her Ministry ahead of the Victorian State Election, with three members of her executive formally announcing they will not re-contest their seats.

Danny Pearson (Finance Minister), Mary-Anne Thomas (Health) and Gayle Tierney (Water, Skills & TAFE) will call time at the November 2026 poll. They follow the earlier retirement of Natalie Hutchins.

The departures are seen as an opportunity to promote new talent and manage internal factional tensions.

The resulting reshuffle is expected in the coming week, following a process that begins with meetings of Labor MPs to allocate factional positions and decide who will enter Cabinet. Premier Allan will then assign portfolios and make a public announcement.

Speculation is rife about who will step up. Treasurer Jaclyn Symes may absorb Danny Pearson’s Finance responsibilities, or Sonya Kilkenny could be moved from the Attorney-General and Planning roles.

Kilkenny is also considered a contender for the Health portfolio, while the role could alternatively go to Labor Left minister Ingrid Stitt, who currently holds Mental Health, Ageing and Multicultural Affairs.

Deputy Premier Ben Carroll (Education, WorkSafe and TAC) may take on additional responsibilities, such as Transport or Infrastructure, while Energy and Resources Minister Lily D’Ambrosio is seen as a potential candidate for a broader economic role.

Tierney’s Water, Skills and TAFE responsibilities could be reassigned to a mid-tier minister such as Natalie Suleyman or Vicki Ward.

Possible new faces include Labor Left’s Sheena Watt (currently a Parliamentary Secretary) and Labor Right backbencher Ella George.

Primary is monitoring the changes closely. If you’re thinking about engaging government stakeholders ahead of the Victorian State Election, get in touch.

Craig Regan, Senior Account Director

Image: Parliament House, Victoria, via Wikimedia Commons

This week I have written about the South Australian election result, and about the NSW census data that shows which communities are most exposed to One Nation’s surge. The picture that emerges from both pieces is of a party whose political moment has genuinely arrived. Or has it?

One Nation finished ahead of the Liberal Party on the primary vote in South Australia. A Resolve Strategic poll has them at 23% in New South Wales. The Farrer by-election in regional NSW on May 9 could deliver them a federal lower house seat.

On the numbers alone, this looks like a breakthrough. So let me now make the argument that One Nation’s own record should temper that conclusion. Because there is a profound difference between winning votes and being ready to govern. And the evidence of the past three decades suggests One Nation has not yet crossed that line.

The defection record is damning

Since the party’s first major electoral breakthrough at the 1998 Queensland state election, over 35 distinct individuals have been elected to Australian parliaments as One Nation members. Of those, approximately two thirds have left the party while still a sitting member.

The details are worse than the headline. In New South Wales, the defection rate is 100%. Every single person ever elected to the NSW parliament under the One Nation banner has walked out before their term ended. In Queensland, all eleven MPs elected in 1998 had departed within two years. All three Western Australian upper house members elected in 2001 quit the party mid-term. In the federal Senate, five of eight senators left before completing their first terms, including one who resigned from the party on the day he was sworn in, before he had even entered the Senate chamber.

The reason given in each case is strikingly consistent. Mark Latham and Rod Roberts cited a “money grab” by the national party. Tania Mihailuk said she could not remain the public face of a party whose financial administration was not transparent to her. Brian Burston left after a public dispute with Hanson, defecting to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party in June 2018. The WA trio fell out with national headquarters within two years of their election. David Oldfield was expelled after a power struggle for control of the NSW branch. This is not ideological drift. It is the same organisational failure, repeated across every jurisdiction, across three decades.

Why this matters right now

The communities driving One Nation’s 23% in NSW deserve this point to be made clearly. The people in Cessnock, Wyong, Campbelltown and the Hunter Valley who are turning to One Nation are not wrong to be angry. Cost of living is real. The sense that both major parties have stopped listening is real. Their frustration is legitimate and their desire for change is reasonable.

But there is a difference between a protest vote and a mandate to govern. Australia is a Westminster parliamentary democracy. Governing in that system requires caucus discipline, institutional competence, and elected members who trust the organisation behind them enough to stay in it when things get difficult. One Nation has consistently demonstrated, in every state and at the federal level, that it cannot deliver those things once the campaign is over and the governing begins.

A party that loses two-thirds of its elected members to defection is not a party with a platform. It is a vehicle for a single personality, and it treats the people elected under its banner as subordinates rather than colleagues. That structure might win seats. It cannot build a government.

Three things One Nation needs to change

If the party is serious about converting its current polling into lasting political power, rather than another cycle of surge, defection and collapse, three things need to change.

It needs to attract a different calibre of candidate. The defection record suggests the party has consistently attracted people who either clash with its leadership culture or who discover, once elected, that the organisation cannot support them properly. Serious candidates require serious internal structures before they will put their names forward.

It needs genuine internal governance. The disputes that have cost One Nation two-thirds of its elected members follow a recurring pattern of financial opacity and centralised control. A modern political party must have transparent financial administration, democratic preselection, and mechanisms for resolving internal disputes that do not end in public warfare and defections. Every split has cost the communities that voted One Nation their representation mid-term. The most recent example is Sarah Game, the sole One Nation member in the South Australian Legislative Council, who resigned in May 2025 and founded a new party, citing the reputational cost of the One Nation brand as an obstacle to her policy work.

Fundamentally, it needs to become something other than only Pauline Hanson’s party. Hanson’s ability to identify and articulate genuine community discontent is not in question. She is one of the most effective political communicators in Australia. But no democratic movement survives or grows when it is the personal expression of one individual. The Liberal Party outlasted Menzies. The Labor movement outlasted Chris Watson. One Nation, as currently constituted, has not demonstrated it can outlast a single parliamentary term without haemorrhaging the people elected to represent it.

A beginning, not a mandate

Twenty-three per cent in the polls is a significant number. The SA result is a genuine political event. One Nation has been at this point before, most dramatically after the 1998 Queensland election, when they won 22.67% of the primary vote and eleven seats, and the cycle that followed was one of rapid collapse driven entirely from within.

The track record of representation for communities turning to One Nation is not good. If the party wants to move from protest vote to political force, it needs to reform itself from within. Afterall how can we expect a party unable to manage its internal affairs to be able to effectively govern the nation?

Chris Hall is CEO, Primary Comms Group, and Chair at Sport NSW

South Australia voted on Saturday, and the headlines will tell you Labor romped home. Peter Malinauskas secured a second term, expanded his majority, and on the current count the Liberals were reduced to just four seats in a 47-seat chamber. On the surface, it looks like a landslide.

Look at the primary votes and a very different story emerges.

Labor’s primary vote actually fell, dropping around two percentage points from 2022. The Liberals collapsed from roughly 36% to under 19% and One Nation, which polled just 2.6% at the last SA election, surged to over 21%. The conservative primary vote didn’t go to Labor. It shattered, and the preference flows handed Malinauskas his expanded majority almost by accident. He won more seats with less support. That’s not a mandate. That’s a structural windfall.

The more uncomfortable question for both major parties isn’t who won. It’s what drove more than one in five South Australian voters to a party with no sitting MPs, no state-level policy platform, and no local personalities worth speaking of.

The answer is that voters weren’t endorsing One Nation. They were rejecting everyone else.

The NSW connection is direct and urgent

Last week Resolve Strategic released a poll that should be sending alarm bells through Macquarie Street. It said in New South Wales, Labor sits at 29% on the primary vote, the Coalition on 25% and One Nation on 23%.

The change from 2011 is remarkable when Barry O’Farrell swept the Liberals to power he garnered 51.2% of the primary vote and Labor got just 25.5%.

In 2023 NSW returned a Labor Government where Chris Minns secured 37% of the vote and the Liberals got 35.4%.

The South Australian earthquake now shows we have a genuine three-way primary vote race.

Forty-six per cent of NSW voters say they would vote for someone other than Labor or the Coalition. That is nearly half the state signalling they have checked out of the system that has governed them their entire lives.

Resolve director Jim Reed put it plainly: One Nation started by taking votes from the Coalition but is now cannibalising Labor’s vote too. The voters shifting aren’t committed ideologues. They’re people who, as Reed describes it, “simply want a change to the two-party system because it’s not working for them.” This is not a left-right story. It’s an insider-outsider story. And that is a fundamentally harder problem to solve.

The Liberal dilemma is now existential

The SA result crystallises a trap the Liberal Party faces in NSW and nationally. With One Nation outpolling them on the primary vote in SA, conservatives will push Angus Taylor federally, and Kellie Sloane in NSW, to adopt One Nation-lite positions to win back regional and outer-suburban voters. But does a party that moves right accelerate losses in richer, inner city moderate areas where the party is already under threat from the Teals?

The SA Liberals were caught in exactly that bind and were destroyed by it. In NSW, with Sloane polling just 17% as preferred premier and the Coalition primary at its lowest since the last state election, the same forces are already pulling the party in opposite directions.

Labor’s problem is the one nobody is talking about

While Labor celebrates in Adelaide, Chris Minns faces a quietly deteriorating position in NSW. His personal popularity carried the party through the post-Bondi period, but he has now publicly signalled he won’t be premier in 2032, effectively placing a retirement horizon in the public mind. Resolve’s Jim Reed was blunt: “He is Labor for most people.” With Minns’ departure now in view, and 75% of voters undecided on who should replace him, Labor’s 29% primary looks more exposed than ever. Car, Park, and Scully are each known to roughly half of voters, but none breaks 10% on preferred successor.

What comes next

The Farrer by-election in southern NSW is scheduled for May 9. One Nation is polling at nearly 29% in that electorate, ahead of an independent on 23% and the Liberal candidate on 19%.

Pauline Hanson said on SA election night she was leaving Malinauskas “some landmines” in the SA parliament, and that the rest of Australia would be watching Farrer. If One Nation wins the seat, coming off the back of SA, it would be the next step in a structural realignment.

The SA election wasn’t a story about Labor’s strength. It was a story about what happens when voters lose faith in both major parties simultaneously and find somewhere else to put their frustration. NSW is showing every sign of heading the same direction. The 2027 state election is just one year away. That is not a lot of time for the majors to reverse a 46% rejection of the two-party system.

Chris Hall is CEO, Primary Comms Group, and Chair at Sport NSW

With one year to the NSW state election, the political picture is becoming clearer. Minns is the favourite to return to government – there is a good chance he will govern in minority, not majority. That means the crossbench will retain leverage, and the next government’s program will depend on negotiations in the Upper House with the Greens, One Nation, and independents. For organisations operating in NSW, this is not background noise. It is the operating environment. And the window to shape it is exactly twelve months wide.

The four things you need to do before election day

• Lock in your budget submission now. The June 2026 NSW Budget is the last major fiscal statement before caretaker mode. It is the final realistic opportunity to influence pre-election spending commitments, regulatory settings, and program design. Time for submissions and advocacy is rapidly closing. If you haven’t already it means starting now, not in April.
• Map your regulatory pipeline for 2026. In the year before an election Governments often realise there is an election deadline looming. The Government may seek to get through more decisions, approvals and determinations, especially if it suits their agenda, before caretaker conventions limit their discretion. If you have decisions in train, understand where they sit and what needs to happen to move them forward before 2027.
• Build a crossbench strategy, not just a ministerial one. With an elevated One Nation presence the most likely upper house scenario, organisations with legislative exposure need to know who the key crossbench members are, what they care about, and where your interests align or conflict. Waiting until after the election is too late.
• All sides of the chamber need to know your position before the election. Businesses need to  build relationships now, not just wait till the election results are known.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA: THE ONE NATION TEST CASE

This Saturday, South Australia goes to the polls and the result will be watched just as closely in Sydney as it is in Adelaide. Not because the NSW political contest is directly affected, but because South Australia is about to become the first state election held since One Nation’s dramatic surge in national polling.

The pre-election numbers are striking. A DemosAU poll put Labor at 43 per cent, with One Nation and the Liberals in an extraordinary contest for second place – One Nation on 19 per cent, the Liberals on 18 per cent, and the Greens on 12 per cent. In the upper house, One Nation was polling 21 per cent, enough, analysts project, for two to three Legislative Council seats.

The critical question Saturday will answer, one that bears directly on the NSW election twelve months hence is whether One Nation’s poll support translates to actual votes when voters are in the booth. The party faces a structural challenge: it has no state-level figure to rally around in South Australia. Pauline Hanson, the party’s most recognisable face, is a Queensland Senator with no presence in SA politics. Whether voters who tell pollsters they support the party will follow through without a prominent local champion is the unanswered question that Saturday will begin to settle.

For NSW executives, the answer matters. If One Nation converts polling into votes in SA, the 21 per cent primary vote and projected upper house presence in DemosAU’s NSW polling becomes a more credible forecast, not just a protest signal. If Saturday shows a significant gap between poll support and actual votes, the NSW upper house arithmetic may be considerably less volatile than the current numbers suggest. Watch Saturday night closely – it is the first real data point in a trend that will define NSW’s legislative environment for the next four years.

Chris Hall is CEO, Primary Comms Group, and Chair at Sport NSW

Primary Communication works with executives, boards, and investors to develop government engagement strategies built on deep political intelligence. With one year to the NSW election, the time to map your exposure, identify your stakeholders, and develop your position is right now – not after the writs are issued.

To discuss what the 2027 election means for your business, contact us today.

THE OPPOSITION’S EQUATION

A long road — but a year is a very long time in politics

Kellie Sloane became Opposition Leader in November 2025 after Mark Speakman’s polling-driven resignation. A first-term MP representing Vaucluse, she brings a genuinely improved personal profile compared to her predecessor and a contrast being a female leader. Her net favourability is +3 per cent against Speakman’s -3 per cent. She was among the first people to reach victims during the Bondi terror attack in December, which gave her immediate national credibility. In January 2026 she announced a refreshed shadow cabinet and declared the Coalition “government ready.”

The arithmetic for Sloane to win Government is daunting. The Coalition needs to claw back 12 seats to govern in its own right, and the polling is currently nowhere near that target. But consider what a year contains: a state budget, a federal royal commission interim report due in April, ongoing cost of living pressure, and any number of unexpected events that routinely reshape political landscapes.

The most recent DemosAU poll found that 48 per cent of voters believe NSW is heading in the wrong direction — against just 30 per cent who say it is on the right track. A government trailing badly on cost of living (-60 per cent net satisfaction), housing (-52 per cent), energy (-32 per cent) and crime (-32 per cent) is not immune to a reversal of fortune.

The complicating factor for Sloane is the federal context. The federal Liberal party has been turbulent: the Coalition split for the second time in January before reuniting, Angus Taylor deposed Sussan Ley as federal Liberal leader in February, and Nationals leader Littleproud resigned last week, being replaced by Senator Matt Canavan. Sloane’s moderate brand depends on distance from that instability. Whether she can maintain it as federal dynamics evolve will be one of the defining tests of her leadership over the coming year.

“If a week is a long time in politics, a year is an eternity. The fundamentals favour Minns — but the battleground is far from settled.”

THE POLICY BATTLEGROUND: WHAT EACH SIDE IS OFFERING

Labor’s pitch: delivery, workers, and stability

Minns is running on a record of action. The housing agenda — transit-oriented development zones, the Housing Delivery Authority, and the newly announced Bays West precinct for up to 8,500 homes above the future metro station — gives him concrete visuals.

Minns is keen to claim a vivid infrastructure story: 32 new and upgraded hospitals, 230 new and upgraded schools, and a $30 billion a year capital program — or as he says, $81 million every single day. Minns will claim he is delivering what communities were promised for twelve years and never received, although much of this infrastructure agenda was set in motion by the previous government.

On Saturday just gone, Minns opened the M12, 16 kilometres of new motorway connecting Western Sydney to the new airport. Planning began in 2015 for this road, yet Minns is the beneficiary of good timing and said the road was delivered on time, on budget — and he made quite a statement about it being toll-free, despite tolling never having been proposed in the first place. The toll-free line plays strongly for Labor.

Minns may well make the frontline worker story Labor’s most durable political asset heading into 2027. His government abolished the former Coalition’s public sector wages cap — a policy he claims had suppressed pay for nurses, teachers, paramedics, police, and child protection workers for over a decade. Since taking office, 41 industrial instruments have locked in pay increases covering more than 190,000 public sector workers. More than 400,000 employees have been offered a baseline three-year wage offer of 10.5 per cent including superannuation. This is an industrial story which draws a sharp contrast with twelve years of Coalition government, however, the impact on the budget is now being felt.

Labor’s vulnerabilities are the $3.4 billion deficit and the gap between housing commitments and actual delivery. The HDA’s unauthorised AI controversy — with the overseeing deputy secretary still on extended leave — is a governance question the Opposition will continue to prosecute. The Government has been under ongoing pressure on mental health services with two patients escaping from Cumberland hospital in February, public hospital psychiatrists resigning en masse in 2025. It may yet feel the heat from any findings from the Royal Commission into Antisemitism.

Minns is now beginning to lean on an experience contrast, citing his three years in government as tested leadership against a first-term MP who has never held a ministerial brief.

Coalition’s pitch: infrastructure, affordability, and small business

Sloane’s pitch is built around three priorities she has articulated clearly since taking the leadership. First, infrastructure and economic growth: restore the long-term pipeline, expand Sydney Metro, and strengthen regional transport — with a direct attack on Labor for halving infrastructure investment over the forward estimates, delaying Metro West, and cutting regional road upgrades. Second, cost-of-living relief and housing: reinstate First Home Buyer Choice, Active Kids, Creative Kids and Back to School vouchers, reduce taxes and charges on development, and reinstate fertility support for couples — a pointed attack on a cut that received little public attention. Third, health and public services: her headline statistic is that patients at Liverpool Hospital are now waiting 381 days for surgery, 172 days longer than when the Coalition left government. She has also staked a credibility claim that is designed directly to counter the inexperience attack: the illicit tobacco legislation the Minns Government enacted was drafted by the Liberal Opposition. It is a “governing from opposition” argument that gives her team a tangible legislative win to point to, although there is a question if the  public heard it or care.

On the budget, Sloane is swinging hard: she argues NSW debt is heading towards $200 billion by 2028 — the highest in the state’s history — with no credible path to surplus and no protection against future shocks. That figure, if it lands with voters, cuts directly against Labor’s narrative of responsible management. Expect more from the Opposition about the GST carve up and how NSW is being duded. Last Friday’s determination by the Commonwealth Grants Commission confirmed NSW will receive just 82 cents for every dollar it contributes to the GST pool

The structural electoral challenge, however, remains unchanged. With the rise of One Nation, the Coalition faces a primary vote of 23 per cent against Labor’s 34 per cent, and the latest polling projects a two-party swing against it of over 12 per cent. Realistically, it is competing to be the largest non-Labor party in a hung parliament — influence without government.

Sloane will need to defend herself against the government’s attack line on her inexperience. Expect Sloane to emphasise her personal narrative that extends beyond being a former TV presenter: almost two decades in journalism, then CEO of Life Education nationally, and a country upbringing in regional South Australia. Although her seat of Vaucluse might work against her as it did for former Opposition Leader Peter Debnam.

This past Saturday marked exactly one year until the 2027 New South Wales state election. On 13 March 2027, Premier Chris Minns will seek a second term against Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane’s Coalition – and the latest polling makes him a clear favourite to retain government. The more consequential question is not whether Minns survives, but by how much: majority government or another term of minority rule. That distinction will determine the regulatory and legislative operating environment for every business in NSW for the four years that follow. For executives, the starting gun has fired.

THE STATE OF THE RACE

Why Minns is the favourite

The most authoritative read of the NSW political landscape right now is the DemosAU poll conducted between 24 February and 4 March 2026 – the most recent state-specific survey published, with a sample of 1,032 voters. The headline primary vote result puts Labor at 34 per cent, One Nation at 21 per cent, the Coalition at 23 per cent, and the Greens at 15 per cent. If preferences flow as they did at the 2023 state election, that translates to a two-party preferred result of 61–39 to Labor.

The critical analytical point is how NSW’s optional preferential voting system works. Under optional preferential, voters are not required to number every box, and a significant proportion do not. That means a split conservative primary vote between the Coalition and One Nation does not automatically deliver its full preference value to the Coalition. DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos was direct: history has shown that when the vote of one side of politics is split under option preferential, it benefits the other major party. Labor, holding the highest primary vote of any single party at 34 per cent, enters 2027 with a structural advantage that the raw primary numbers alone do not fully convey.

“History has shown that when the vote of one side of politics is split under optional preferential, it benefits the other major party.” – DemosAU Head of Research, March 2026

The personal dimension reinforces the structural one. Minns leads Sloane 48–24 as preferred premier, a margin that has grown since October 2025. His net personal rating is +21 per cent against Sloane’s +3 per cent. He leads across both genders, all age groups, and both metropolitan and regional NSW. Being on the rise twelve months from polling day is exactly where an incumbent premier wants to be.

The real question: majority or minority?

The more interesting strategic question for business is whether Minns can convert his positional advantage into a majority government. At the 2023 election, Labor won 45 seats in the 93-seat lower house – two short of a majority – and has governed in minority ever since. A second-term majority would give Minns significantly greater legislative freedom. A second-term minority would replicate the current environment, with the Greens, independents, and potentially One Nation all retaining leverage.

The upper house picture is the sharper challenge. DemosAU’s upper house polling has Labor on 29 per cent, One Nation on 22 per cent, and the Coalition on 21 per cent. The firm’s analysis suggests that result would deliver the Coalition only four upper house seats, with the Nationals winning just one. An upper house with elevated One Nation representation would be a significantly harder chamber for any government to navigate on major economic and regulatory legislation. For businesses with legislative exposure in NSW, this scenario matters as much as the lower house result.

WHAT THE POLLING MEANS FOR BUSINESS

Minns is the favourite – plan your government engagement on that basis. But plan for minority government as the more likely scenario, not majority. That means crossbench relationships matter: the Greens, One Nation, and remaining independents will shape what any new government can deliver in the upper house. If your business has regulatory or legislative exposure in NSW, a crossbench engagement strategy is not optional.

WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK

Parliament resumes on Tuesday 17 March for both chambers – the first sitting week since the budget estimates recess wrapped last Wednesday. Several significant matters are in play.

The M12 motorway opened on Saturday – 16 kilometres of new highway connecting Western Sydney to the Western Sydney International Airport, delivered on time, on budget, and without tolls. The government will prosecute this hard as a proof-of-delivery story. Watch for how it frames the opening as part of the broader Western Sydney Airport precinct narrative, and how the Government will use the toll-free angle to draw a deliberate contrast with the previous government’s infrastructure legacy.

Medicinal cannabis reform is also pending a Cabinet decision. Minns confirmed at estimates that Cabinet is still considering recommendations from an expert working group that reported at end of 2025. An estimated 400,000 NSW residents hold prescriptions and currently face automatic driving disqualification under drug testing laws regardless of impairment. Watch for any indication of a timeline or a government bill being brought forward this sitting week.

The GST relativity is now a live political battleground. Friday’s determination by the Commonwealth Grants Commission confirmed NSW will receive just 82 cents for every dollar it contributes to the GST pool – the lowest relativity since the tax was introduced, and $1.4 billion less than Victoria despite NSW having 1.5 million more people.

Shadow Treasurer Scott Farlow immediately attacked both Labor governments, noting that Minns and Mookhey failed to even make a submission to the Productivity Commission’s GST distribution reform inquiry – arguing the government “sat on their hands” while NSW fell further behind. The Coalition is prosecuting this as a joint Canberra–Macquarie Street failure, framing Minns as unwilling to stand up to Albanese on NSW’s behalf. Watch for whether the government responds with concrete action beyond rhetoric, and whether Treasurer Mookhey escalates the dispute formally ahead of the state budget in June.

Finally, the Royal Commission on Antisemitism and Social Cohesion is underway, with an interim report due 30 April 2026. The commission is examining the circumstances surrounding the Bondi terror attack and the adequacy of law enforcement responses. No hearing dates have been published, however, if there are any significant public developments watch how the NSW Government responds under scrutiny.

Chris Hall is CEO, Primary Comms Group, and Chair at Sport NSW