At its heart, the budget provides short-term fiscal relief to millions of people who are seeing global events driving higher prices for everyday commodities and fuel.

Sweeteners dominating the headlines included a $250 cash payment to low income earners, fuel excise cut, mental health services, $1bn for local manufacturing, $18bn for infrastructure and a surprise increase in the Low to Medium Income Tax Offset.

In the medium term, this Budget bets that global recovery from the pandemic will continue and domestic inflation won’t soar out of control. So the government is painting hopefulness.

Will it have a lasting effect and influence the choices voters make at the ballot box? And can organisations guess who will win from the current situation? The answer isn’t clear – and for that you can thank deeply-rooted voter cynicism.
The Government’s public polling numbers are awful. But that might not matter on election day.

For many years, the impact of a Budget was measured by opinion polling, which reflected voting intentions at a particular time. Perversely, it’s hard to recall a Budget in recent memory that produced a positive bounce in any incumbent government’s numbers.

That’s because most of a cynical voting public are almost totally disengaged right now. They might not be expressing affection for either of the Prime Ministerial contenders, and they haven’t started to make their decisions.
If we’ve learned anything in recent years, it’s not to trust polling that’s based on universal swings and predictive preference flows.

Once upon a time, respondents answered landlines and even spoke with pollsters on their doorsteps. Not any longer.

Polling companies are trying a range of methodologies to keep up with societal shifts.

It is a truism that voters almost always vote through their hip pocket. The difference this time is that both major parties are trying to appeal to an electorate that’s tired, jaded and very focussed on their own backyards.
That means all meaningful politics is local and it’s likely that this election will (again) be decided in a handful of electorates with appeals to individuals via social media rather than through unwatched TV debates or staged photo opportunities.

At this time of an election campaign, organisations must be very cautious about getting caught in storm of public debate. There are three golden rules at this time:

1. Keep all your bridges open, you never know how the election will travel until the votes are counted
2. Respect that all candidates are in a wild public battle for their jobs and livelihood – this is not a time for coffee catch-ups or administrivia
3. Balance any opportunity for public debate, with the risk of getting into a dog fight. Especially when the dogs are expert and bred for battle.

During election campaigns the machinery of federal government gets locked up into ‘caretaker mode’, where decisions are suspended and neutrality reigns supreme. They will not want to get involved with the Morrison government celebrating their nuanced budget, or the Albanese opposition responding with pointed brickbats.

In the coming days we will learn about the timing of this next election, so take great care of your policy positions and relationships across all sides of the political debating chamber.

Craig Regan, Senior Counsel, Government Affairs

Between COVID, floods and the tragedy of the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, somewhere the news cycle is going to have to factor in the upcoming Federal Election.

Slated for mid to late May, it has been argued the domestic and global turbulence engulfing the media is exactly what both sides of politics want – an environment of little scrutiny and even less substance.

Labor has deliberately released little in the way of public policy. This responds to the failure of its 2019 strategy where the party released incredibly detailed policy suites, but lost the election despite nearly universal predictions of a win.

As for the Coalition, it has been weathering rolling disasters – be they natural and environmental or political and self-inflicted – and has struggled to stay on top of its current agenda let alone establish a new one.

Meanwhile disillusionment with both major sides has the so-called Independents again being touted as holding the potential balance of power – “so-called” because their commonalities and unity of messaging bears remarkable resemblance to those of political parties, bringing to mind the expression “if it walks like a duck and talks like duck…”

However, this has only occurred twice since Federation in 1901 – once in 1940 and then again in 2010. With polling becoming increasingly less indicative of actual outcomes, many look to betting markets for a guide.

Given current odds have Labor at $1.32, the Coalition at $3.20, and $41 if the independents decide which side holds government, it could be considered the election is Labor’s to lose.

A reflection on the expectations versus the outcomes of the 2019 Federal Election suggests that at this stage of the election cycle, it is still very much anyone’s guess as to who will be governing Australia after the 2022 election.

By Duncan Bremner

Duncan is Primary’s Senior Counsel, public affairs, with extensive and trusted networks in business politics, government, and media

So, you have laid out your business objectives and your strategy is crystal clear. 

You move on to tactics and a key pillar of your strategy is media relations. Your eyes are firmly set on getting that golden nugget of coverage in the media title that everyone wants to be in. 

What’s next?

The media cycle that we live in is 24/7. This, however, coupled with time-poor journalists means it has never been more important for businesses to ensure they are reaching the right journalists in the right media outlet, with the right messages to get cut-through. 

Here are a couple of tips to get you started

1. Why are you talking? Really have a think about why you’re trying to secure media coverage and more importantly, why anybody should care. Egos aside, this step will really help determine what audiences your messages are relevant for.
   
2. Invest time in planningFor most companies, getting media coverage requires careful planning, message development and a splash of creativity; but it’s also a journey of building credibility and connection. Reviewing objectives against any upcoming announcements can help create a hook. This will also help ensure you are going to the most fitting outlet and journalist for your story.
3. Third party endorsementHave you got someone credible that can tell the journalist how awesome you are? Bring them along for the ride! Endorsements from scientists, customers, research bodies, academia, and stakeholders add another layer of credibility to your story.
4. Collateral is keyNot everyone absorbs words well. Striking images showing you doing your thing will help appease those right-brainers, and so will assets such as infographics and charts where possible.

A great way to understand your target and get inspired is to immerse yourself in your target publications. For instance, look at trends in approach, get to know the names of the journalists and what the key ingredients are in a great story.